Lecture 4: Science Methods, Misuse and Madness

"Tell me once again how sheep's bladders may be used to prevent Earthquakes. This new sciences is fascinating."
Monty Python's, The Holy Grail

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Date: September 8, 1994
Reading Assignment: pp. 24-32

Description : Introduction to the scientific method, experimentation, statistics, pseudo-sciences

Objectives

understand science is a method, not a collection of facts

understand the basic steps in the scientific method

understand the some of the impact that sciences has had on society

be able to understand how statistics and experiments are used to test theories

understand that astrology is a testable (and falsifiable) hypothesis

know that the burden of proof lies on the person making a claim

understand that extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof

Lecture Outline

Slide # 1: Lecture 4: Science Methods, Misuse and Madness

The Scientific Method

Experiments and Statistics

Science and Society

Fringe Sciences and Pseudo-Sciences

Slide # 2: Lecture 3: Review

Lecture 2: A Quick Review

Seasons

Lunar Motion

Rotation and Revolution

Moon phases

Eclipses

Slide # 3: What is Science?

(In addition to being a general ed requirement)

Slide # 4: What is Science?

(A) A collection of facts

(B) A thing that ÒscientistsÓ do

(D) None of the Above

Slide # 5: What is Science?

(A) A collection of facts

(B) A thing that ÒscientistsÓ do

(D) None of the Above

Slide # 6: Science : A collection of facts?

Scientists are constantly making new discoveries

Data gets better with better technology

Old Theories are replaced by New Theories

Scientific ÒFACTSÓ change!

Slide # 7: Science: A thing scientists do?

What exactly is a scientist?

Do you need a PhD?

PhD in Astrophysics?

Being Scientific DOES NOT require a Union Card!

Slide # 8: Science: The TRUTH About the Universe?

TRUTH is a really big word.

Slide # 9: Science

A Process

for Understanding

Nature

Slide # 10: The Scientific Method: A 3-Step Process

Gather Data

From Hypothesis

Test Hypothesis

Slide # 11: Scientific Understanding means Prediction

When is it going to rain?

How will this pendulum move?

When will it start getting cold again?

How long until darkness?

Slide # 12: Nature : The Universe

Stars, Planets, Galaxies and the Universe

Atoms, electrons, quarks and matter

Compounds, materials, and chemicals

Animals, plants and cells

Slide # 13: The Scientific Method: A Process

Science follows simple steps

Slide # 14: Science

Things that are NOT tested are NOT scientific

When an old theory is proven wrong, it is an example of science succeeding.

Slide # 15: Testing a Hypothesis

Experimentation

Statistics

Slide # 16: Experiments

Must be Repeatable

Must test the right hypothesis

Experiments must be ÒfairÓ

Slide # 17: Statistics

A Mathematical test

Compares Experiments with Theory

Slide # 18: Statistics : Two Quick Examples

List #1 : 1,2,3,4,5

Average = (1+2+3+4+5)/5 = 3

List #2 : 3.02, 3.04, 3.00, 2.98, 2.96

Average = (3.02+ 3.04+3.00+2.98+2.96)/5 = 3.00

Averages and errors are both important

Slide # 19: Experimental Error: An Example

What time is it?

Slide # 20: Experimentation- An Example

Theory: Heads Occur More Often Than Tails

Experiment: Flip some coins

Statistics : Compares the Results

Slide # 21: Statistics

What are the odds of this being a random event?

What is the probabilty that this hypothesis is true?

Slide # 22: Sciences and Society

Is Science GOOD or BAD?

Slide # 23: GOOD or BAD

GOOD Science Things

Medicine and Longer LIfe Spans

Better Transportation (fast cars)

Tang, Spam and Artificial Food Products

BAD Science Things

Atomic Bombs

The Telephone (and computer)

Tang, Spam, and Artificial Food Products

Slide # 24: Technology has changed life in the last few hundred years

Much more food

Much better health care

Much higher standard of living

Much better working conditions

Slide # 25: Is Science Culturally Biased?

Probably not

Science is Self-Correcting Over Time

Experiments constantly test established ÒFACTSÓ

Scientific Results should Independent of Culture

Slide # 26: Previous Attempts at Creating a ÒCulturally Based ScienceÓ

N-Rays : Discovered in France in about 1900

Could not be replicated

Discovered to be self-deception

Genetics Theory in the Soviet Union

ÒHard Work Makes Strong ChildrenÓ

Used to achieve a political agenda, no experimental basis

ÒJewish ScienceÓ

Used in 1930Õs to 1940Õs to suppress Jews

Simply wrong

Slide # 27: Astrology

The belief that the stars and planets control or influence human behavior.

Slide # 28: Astrology: A History

Time was measured by motions in the sky

Positions in the sky influence things on earth

Annual Solar motion causes seasons

Lunar motion causes tides

Perhaps planets might influence kingdoms and kings

Slide # 29: Astrology for the Rich and Famous

Royal Astrologers became part of priest class

Wealthy, but not royal merchants wanted to see the future too

Astrology for the neo-rich and neo-famous

Slide # 30: Astrology as a Science?

Astrology makes definite predictions about human behavior

Astrology CAN BE TESTED

Slide # 31: Sun Sign Astrology

The position of the sun at your time of birth influences the rest of your life

Scorpio, Taurius, Gemini...

Theory:

ÒThe astrological sun sign influences your career, physical characteristics,

Slide # 32: Sun Sign and Career

Over 60 occupations have been tested

Actors, Advertising Executives, ... Zoologists

All careers are equally likely to be born at ANY time during the year

There is no correlation between sun sign and career

Slide # 33: Sun Sign and Physical Characteristics

Over 30 physical characteristics have been tested

Arm size... weight

No correlation between any physical characteristic and sun sign

Slide # 34: Sun Sign and Health

No correlation

LibraÕs do not live longer than GeminiÕs

Slide # 35: Sun Sign and Romance

Are some Astrological Signs Compatable?

Most Astrologers make predictions who NOT to marry.

Slide # 36: Experimental Tests of Astrology

There is no correlation between sun sign and

career

physical characteristics

health

love-life

Slide # 37: Other types of Astrology?

Astrologiers and Psychics make Predictions every year.

Are these predictions accurate?

Slide # 38: Predictive Success of Leading Astrologiers

From a sample of 3011 predictions, astrologers were correct in 338 cases over

11 percent accuracy on major events

Study based on predictions by astrology magazine, Jeanne Dixon, Sydney Omar, C

Slide # 39: What kind of predictions did they make?

Most Common of the 3011 Predictions

Assault on the President (26)

Contact with Alien Beings (23)

Medical Breakthrough in Cancer Research (22)

Slide # 40: More predictions

Marriage of Jackie Onassis (19)

Divorce of Farrah Fawcett-Majors (17)

War in the Middle East (14)

Breakthroughs in Heart Disease (11)

Economic Good Times (11)

Economic Hard Times (10)

Slide # 41: The Barnum Effect

How to make a successful horoscope

Be Vague

Be Double-Headed

Be Modal

Be Favorable

Slide # 42: Have We Disproved Astrology?

No. It is impossible to DISPROVE a theory.

Slide # 43: Two Big Rules in Science

The Burden of Proof is on the person MAKING the CLAIM.

EXTRAORDINARY CLAIMS DEMAND EXTRAORDINARY PROOF

Slide # 44: The Science Debate

Every day, people are debating scientific issues

Most scientific debates have two sides

Majority opinion

Minority opinion

Slide # 45: Majority vs Minority Opinion

Majority opinion is held by MOST Scientists

Minority opinion is held by a smaller number of scientists

Are minority opinions always wrong?

Slide # 46: Minority Opinions in Science

How do we tell who is correct?

EVIDENCE and DATA

How was the experiment done?

Was it repeated by others?

Is the new theory TESTABLE?

Slide # 47: Warning Signs in Public Debates

Beware Citations to Authority

DATA is important, not words.

Beware of Minority Opinion

Why donÕt most scientists believe it?

Beware Magicians choice

Attacks where the other is weakest

Slide # 48: Beware the Underdog Syndrome

Everyone loves an underdog.

Everyone thought Galileo was wrong.

Everyone thinks I am wrong.

Galileo was right.

I might be right too.

Slide # 49: Science at Work

Case 1: Cold Fusion

Case 2: Creationism

Case 3: Medicine

Slide # 50: Case 1: Cold Fusion 1989

Physicists announce Nuclear Fusion achieved in Utah Lab

No Expensive Equipment!

Possible to reproduce in simple labs!

Slide # 51: Fusion in a Dish Pan?

Network News Announcement

Slide # 52: All Physics Labs Try to Recreate the Experiment

Measurements taken off Television

Hundreds of Experiments begin with in days

Slide # 53: The Initial Results

Some other labs detect Fusion

Most other labs detect nothing?

Utah creates ÒCold Fusion InstituteÓ

Multimillion dollar project

Slide # 54: Current Status

There is no such thing as cold fusion

All detections are negative

Early results from experimental error

Slide # 55: What happened?

Errors found in poorly designed experiments

Slide # 56: Case 2: Creationism vs Evolution

Creationism

The Universe is about 6000 years old.

Evolution

The Universe is more than 10 billion years old.

Slide # 57: Creationism- The GMU Connection

November 1993 Debate

Gish: ICR

Weber: USPO

4 Hours of Debate

Who was the Winner?

Slide # 58: The Winner: Gish ?

The Universe is 6000 years old?

Slide # 59: Why did Gish win?

Gish

Folksy humor

color slides

over 300 debates!!!

Weber

dry facts

bad slides

bad speaking technique

Slide # 60: Is Creationism Correct?

Not necessarily.

Debates are poor for deciding scientific issues

Slide # 61: Case 3: Medicines

Are all medicines well tested?

Slide # 62: Another Latin Saying

Caveat Emptor

Slide # 63: Pseudo Sciences

Caveat Emptor, Dudes

Slide # 64: Lecture 4: Science Methods, Misuse and Madness

The Scientific Method

Experiments and Statistics

Science and Society

Fringe Sciences and Pseudo-Sciences